ABSTRACT Mediterranean region is identified as a primary hot-spot for climate change due to the expected temperature and rainfall changes. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology in these regions is an important task to develop long-term water management strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of the climate changes on local hydrological quantities at the Goksu Watershed at the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey as a case study. A set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were used as drivers for the conceptual hydrological model J2000 to investigate how the hydrological system and the underlying processes would respond to projected future climate conditions. The model was implemented to simulate daily hydrological quantities including runoff generation, Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and soil-water balance for present (2005–2015) and future (up to 2100). The results indicated an increase of both precipitation and runoff throughout the region from January to March. The region showed a strong seasonally dependent runoff regime with higher flows during winter and spring and lower flows in summer and fall. The study provides a comparative methodology to include meteorological-hydrological modelling integration that can be feasible to assess the climate change impacts in mountainous regions. 相似文献
In order to simulate earthquake ground motions for the Instanbul (Turkey) region, acceleration time series from western Turkey are modeled by transforming the series into a stationary one which can be described by an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) process. The ARMA and other parameters used in the stationary transformation are related to physical parameters (e.g. magnitude, distance to epicenter, depth to hypocenter and duration) via a regression analysis. To create simulations for a given set of physical parameters, the modelling procedure is reversed. 相似文献
The survival of several ancient monuments made of ignimbrites in Hınıs town (Erzurum-Anatolia), which has suffered from intense annual temperature fluctuations and strong seismic activity, can mainly be attributed to use of suitable building stones. This paper examines the usability as building stones of Middle Miocene Hınıs ignimbrites that widely outcrop in and around Hınıs town. The petrographical, geochemical, mechanical, and physical properties determined lead to categorization of the ignimbrites as four different types. The Hınıs ignimbrites contain dasite–trachy–andesite and rhyolite. Rhyolite is the strongest material whereas the other types, being more porous, are weaker, lighter, and have good heat-insulation properties. Being light (easily transportable, machinable, and workable), good heat insulators, environmentally friendly (because of natural ventilation), sufficiently elastic to sustain seismic loading in the area under study, and more cost-effective than artificial stones, Hınıs ignimbrites are certainly a preferable option for use as light building stone. These ignimbrites are not suitable for use as floor covering, however, (because of rapid abrasion) or for building structural columns (because of low strength). 相似文献
The modification of a relatively cold air mass over the warm water of Lake Michigan is studied by using a two-dimensional nonlinear mesoscale model. Considerable amounts of heat and water vapor are supplied from the water surface to the lower atmosphere by turbulent eddies. A convective mixed layer develops and grows toward the downwind region with stratocumulus clouds over the lake.The model simulates the warming and moistening of the mixed layer, the development of a boundary layer, the divergence and convergence of wind near the coastlines, and the turbulent fluxes.The model warming of the mixed layer across the lake was about 2.2 °K and the moistening of the mixed layer was about 0.8 g kg–1, which are comparable to 2.7 °K and 0.8 g kg–1 observed by Lenschow (1973). The convective boundary layer, which includes the cloud layer, subcloud layer, and superadiabatic layer near the water surface, is well simulated. The tilt of the inversion which coincides with the cloud top is also well reproduced. When a prescribed cooling rate is applied at the cloud top, stronger turbulence and a deeper cloud layer are generated. Without the cooling, the cloud is shallow and the shape of the cloud base is determined by surface conditions. The rise of the inversion is due to upward vertical motion, and deepening of the convective layer in the downwind region. 相似文献
This study covers the graphical analysis of deformation values measured in the Kızlaç T3A tunnel (Osmaniye, Turkey), which was built as a part of the Tarsus–Adana–Gaziantep Motorway Project. Excavation was performed through a sequence which was composed of sandstone–shale alternation, sandstone and dolerite dyke. Horizontal, longitudinal and settlement deformation values were optically read and recorded daily on a computer. These data were evaluated according to New Austrian Tunneling Method. Total deformation measurement, risky area determination and forecast of transitions between weak and stiff rock, stiff and weak rock were assessed as a result of deformation evaluation for tunnel stability, safety and economy.
The largest resultant deformation value (13 mm) was measured in the sandstone–shale alternation between chainage 500 and 550 m, which was highly weathered by groundwater and affected by local tectonic disturbance. The smallest deformation value was observed in a stiff dolerite dyke between 370 and 430 m, where at times the deformation values decreased to zero. In the sandstone, small resultant deformation values (2–4 mm) were also recorded. The 500–550-m interval of tunnel alignment had the highest risk for tunnel instability in the studied section but the deformation values (maximum 13 mm) were within the tolerable deformation range (10 cm). Small negative longitudinal deformation values decreasing between chainage 320 and 370 m and small positive longitudinal deformation values decreasing between 420 and 480 m indicate the sandstone–shale alternation (weak rock) and the dyke (stiff rock) and sandstone (stiff rock), and the sandstone–shale alternation with a fault gauge zone (weak rock), respectively. These longitudinal deformations needed probable to predict the lithological transitions ahead of the face, which in timely were used to determination of the tunnel support system. 相似文献
Several catalogues of global earthquakes reported for the time period from 1900 to 2000 have been compiled to examine lateral variations of the modal (a/b) values as derived from the Gutenberg–Richter empirical law. For this purpose, the world was divided into 27 different seismic regions in terms of tectonic environments. The parameters a and b were calculated using the least-squares method. The modal values computed for each region were used to produce a global map of the modal values using a grid space of 3°. The results show that a and b-values do not always supply much information about tectonic environments of the different regions. It is observed that the modal values estimated for different tectonic regions are consistent with seismicity of the world and represent global seismic sources better than a or b values. The highest modal values have been found in the oceanic subduction zones, and the lowest values in the oceanic ridges. Lowest b values are observed in trenches. These observations suggest that there is a correlation between apparent stresses and b values. Mapping of the modal values provides detailed images of the zones presenting low and high seismic activity and it may be used as a measure of seismic potential sources and relative hazard levels. 相似文献
The Attepe district consists of Precambrian, Lower–Middle Cambrian, Upper Cambrian–Lower Ordovician and Mesozoic formations. It contains several iron deposits and occurrences. Three types of iron-mineralizations can be distinguished in the area; (i) Sedimentary Fe-sulfide in Precambrian bituminous metapelitic rocks, and Fe-oxides in Precambrian metasandstones (SISO), (ii) vein-type Fe-carbonate and oxides composed of mainly siderite, ankerite and hematite including barite in Lower–Middle Cambrian metacarbonates of the Çaltepe Formation (HICO), (iii) karstic Fe-oxides and hydroxides essentially in the Lower–Middle Cambrian metacarbonates and the unweathered Fe-carbonates (KIO). The latter type is more widespread and located at the upper parts of the most important mineable iron deposits like Attepe deposit.
Oxygen-, carbon-, sulfur- and strontium-isotope studies have been performed on siderites and barites in the vein-type ores, and on calcites in the recrystallized Çaltepe Limestones to investigate the sources and formation mechanism of primary ore-forming constituents. The δ13C values of siderites and calcites in limestones of the Çaltepe Formation range from −10.10‰ to −8.20‰, and from −0.8‰ to 2.30‰. Both carbonate minerals show δ18O values between 17.50–18.30‰ and 16.20–23.00‰, respectively. The δ13C and δ18O isotopic variations do not indicate any direct or linear relations between siderites and limestones. However, it is possible that the carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of carbonate minerals could be changed to some extent, when limestones were subjected to hydrothermal processes or thermal alterations during metamorphism.
The isotopic values of barites display 32.40–38.30‰ for δ34S and 12.20–14.70‰ for δ18O. The strontium isotope ratios (0.717169–0.718601) of barites and the sulfur isotope compositions of barites and pyrites suggest that there are no direct linkages of ore-forming compounds neither with a magmatic source nor with sedimentary pyrite formations in the Precambrian bituminous shales of the Attepe formation.
According to the field observations and the stable isotope data, siderites and ankerites should be formed by interaction between iron-rich hydrothermal fluids and Çaltepe limestones, whereas isotope ratios of barites indicate that they were formed by mixing of sulfur-rich meteoric waters and deeply circulated hydrothermal solutions. 相似文献
Dissolved oxygen is one of the most important water quality parameters. Aeration improves the water quality by maintaining good dissolved oxygen levels in water. Dissolved oxygen enters water by entrainment of air bubbles. A method of aeration that has become popular in recent years is the venturi aeration. In the present paper, experimental studies were conducted to investigate the effect of the location of the air hole in venturi tubes upon air injection. It was observed from the results that the location of the air hole playes a significant role for the air injection. The optimal air hole location that maximized the air injection in venturi aerators was determined. 相似文献
Tsunami mitigation, preparedness and early warning initiatives have begun at the global scale only after the tragic event of Sumatra in 2004. Turkey, as a country with a history of devastating earthquakes, has been also affected by tsunamis in its past. In this paper we present the Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean, Marmara and Black Sea) by providing detailed information on historically and instrumentally recorded significant tsunamigenic events surrounding Turkey, aiming to a better understanding of the Tsunami threat to the Turkish coasts. In addition to the review of the Tsunami hazard, we have studied a possible Tsunami source area between Rhodes and SW of Turkey using Tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE-two nested domains. We have computed a maximum positive amplitude of 1.13 m and maximum negative amplitude of −0.5 m at the Tsunami source by this study. The distribution of maximum positive amplitudes of the water surface elevations in the selected Tsunami forecast area and time histories of water level fluctuations near selected locations (Marmaris, Dalaman, Fethiye and Kas towns) indicate that the maximum positive amplitude near the coast in the selected forecast area exceeds 3.5 m. The arrival time of maximum wave to Marmaris, Dalaman, is 10 min, while that of Fethiye and Kas towns is 15–20 min. The maximum positive amplitudes near the shallow region of around 10 m depth are 3 m (Marmaris), 1 m (Dalaman), 2 m (Fethiye) and 1 m (Kas). Maximum positive amplitudes of water elevations in the duration of 4 h simulation of the Santorini-Minoan Tsunami in around 1600 BC in the Aegean Sea are also calculated based on a simulation performed using 900 m grid resolution of Aegean sea bathymetry with a 300 m collapse of 10 km diameter of Thera (Santorini) caldera. We have also presented the results of the Tsunami modeling and simulation for Marmara Sea obtained from a previous study. Last part of this paper provides information on the establishment of a Tsunami Warning Center by KOERI, which is expected to act also as a regional center under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission – Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative, emphasizing on the challenges together with the future work needed to be accomplished. 相似文献
